Electric cars are good, but we need e-fuels as well
Not all industries lend themselves to battery electrification, making sustainable fuels a relevant solution
Elements of the German car industry pushed hard last year for ICE cars to be allowed to remain on sale in the EU after 2035 – and they got their way, provided such cars use only carbon-neutral fuels.
But that might not be enough, said BMW Group CEO Oliver Zipse.
Unless the EU accelerates the availability of such fuels, it will amount to “a deliberate ban on [ICEs] through the back door”.
The problem here (if you want to perceive it as such) is that the car industry is, despite what some will tell you, actually moving quickly. Too quickly for synthetic e-fuels to arrive in large quantities and at sensible cost.
The EU requires that “all new cars and vans registered in the [EU] market are zero-emission by 2035” and that “average emissions of new cars come down by 55% by 2030” from 2021’s level.
Vans get only a slightly easier time on the rate of reduction, while discussions about heavy road haulage are still ongoing.
(The UK’s regulations are different, more stringent again and, unlike EU laws, mandate percentages of car sales being zero-emission, which is why we are now seeing and will continue to see market disruption and distortion, such as firms selling electric cars at losses and Suzuki becoming unable to sell its lightweight superminis.)
Other transport industries are moving at a slower pace – understandably, given the lifespans and costs of the vehicles involved and the inviability of battery electrification.
Within the EU, aerospace companies need to reduce their CO2 emissions by 20% by 2035, by which time passenger jets must use a blend of 5% synthetic fuel. Maritime companies must achieve a 14.5% CO2 reduction by 2035, although they have no requirement for synthetic fuel use.
No such requirements yet exist for vehicles used in off-highway agriculture and construction, but they will surely come at some point. The presumed answer for applications where battery electrification isn’t viable – which is on most of those heavy-duty, high-altitude or long-distance trips – will be synthetic fuels.
“Aviation will use jet fuel indefinitely,” said Paddy Lowe, CEO of British firm Zero Petroleum, which has begun making small quantities of synthetic gasoline, diesel and jet fuel without using fossil fuels, instead utilising CO2 from the air and hydrogen from water.
Porsche has invested heavily in the e-fuels firm Highly Innovative Fuels, which currently powers its Porsche Supercup race series. Formula 1 will start using synthetic fuels in 2026, too.
But these are such small steps. The actual business of cars driving around a circuit accounts for less than 1% of F1’s total emissions, dwarfed by the business of getting everyone and everything there. Zipse’s concern, then, is that while the tech and consumer demand will exist, the supply won’t, due to the car industry outpacing others.
Thomas Schäfer sees it differently. “Why spend a fortune on old tech that doesn’t give you any benefit?” asked the CEO of Volkswagen, which will sell its last ICE car in Europe in 2032.
EVs will be good for most car owners, especially after improvements in battery tech that will make today’s EVs look like prams. But Schäfer’s use of “old” doesn’t hold for every industry. ICE tech is their present and future.
The sooner there’s mass availability of carbon-neutral fuels to car makers that want to keep a small number of enthusiasts happy, the sooner heavy industries that can’t be electrified can also access it and the quicker they can move away from fossil fuels.
Which means I’m with Zipse, in the unusual position of thinking that what’s good for sports car makers, high-mileage drivers, supercar engines, racers, motorcyclists and race-track goers is good for all of us.