Russia-Ukraine Escalation Reignites Oil’s War Premium

For most of this year, the geopolitical premium in oil prices was coming from the Middle East flare-ups amid the Israel-Iran escalation. At the end of 2024, the other major conflict, between Russia and Ukraine, is grabbing headlines with an escalation of hostilities, Ukraine’s first use of long-range missiles provided by Western powers for strikes within Russia, a new missile type Moscow is using to hit Ukraine, and Putin’s new nuclear doctrine. The end of this year is set to see wild swings in oil prices amid rising geopolitical tensions…