EIA STEO: Oil’s Tight Squeeze To Create Price Pop Before the Drop

The first half of 2025 is shaping up to be a squeeze play for global oil markets. Supply is tightening thanks to ongoing production declines in Iran and Venezuela. The result? Brent crude prices are inching up from $70 per barrel to a newly forecasted $75/b by Q3, the EIA has said in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday. But don’t get too cozy with those numbers—by late 2025, oil inventories are expected to build, courtesy of OPEC+ unwinding its production cuts and non-OPEC countries pumping more. That means prices…