Peak Permian? Geology and Water Say We’re Close

After more than a decade of relentless drilling in the top U.S. oil-producing basin, the Permian, some areas have hit geological limits while others, yet to be drilled, are not expected to be as prolific as the prime Tier 1 acreage that producers have started to exhaust. Top executives at major shale firms have already expressed opinions that Permian oil production could hit its peak as early as the end of this decade. To be sure, crude oil output in the top basin continues to rise, but growth has slowed since 2022—not only because producers…