A 'local top' and $88K retest? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) is bracing for a major US macro data week as crypto market participants warn of serious volatility next.
· Bitcoin retests $92,000 after a promising weekly close, but traders still see a deeper BTC price correction to come.
· A bumper week of US macro data comes with the Federal Reserve under pressure on multiple fronts.
· The Fed has its hands tied, analysis argues, predicting interest rates coming down, liquidity booming and BTC/USD reaching $180,000 within eighteen months.
· Bitcoin short-term holders are back in the black, making current price levels especially pertinent for speculative investors.
· Sentiment is in neutral territory, but crowd-based FOMO may keep price from rising much higher, research concludes.
*Bitcoin traders wait for support retest*
Bitcoin is circling multimonth highs as the week gets underway, having tested $92,000 as support after the weekly close.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
That close itself was bullish, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms, coming in at just above the key yearly open level of $93,500.
#BTC
Can Bitcoin do it?
Can Bitcoin Weekly Close above $93500 to start the process of regaining the previous Range?$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/r5reRJ0HFy pic.twitter.com/5ga0gcSqX4
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 27, 2025
Forecasting an “interesting week” to come, popular trader CrypNuevo eyed the potential for higher highs for BTC/USD.
“Pretty simple - I don't see momentum rolling over just yet and it's possible to see a third leg up up $97k where there is some liquidity,” he wrote in a thread on X.
“Eventually, we should see a 4H50EMA retest that can be a potential support.”
BTC/USD 4-hour chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
CrypNuevo referred to the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour timeframes, currently at $91,850.
On the topic of likely support retests, fellow trader Roman had a deeper retracement in mind.
“Waiting to see what happens at 88k,” he told X followers.
“Not a believer in breaking 94k resistance any time soon.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with stochastic RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Roman reiterated that the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) metric remained heavily overbought, a sign that a cooling-off period for price may follow.
Trader and commentator Skew meanwhile focused on the area between $90,000 and $92,000, describing “indecision” in the market resulting in current price action.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Skew/X
*GDP, PCE prints headline major macro week*
It’s crunch time for US macroeconomic data and inflation progress this week, with a slew of numbers coming thick and fast.
Q1 GDP, nonfarm payrolls and tech earnings are all due, but the highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
Set for release on April 30, both PCE and GDP precede the monthly candle close, setting the stage for crypto and risk-asset volatility.
The stakes are already high — US trade tariffs have resulted in wild swings both up and down for crypto, stocks and commodities, with seemingly no end in sight for now.
“This has been one of the most volatile years in history: The S&P 500 has seen a 2% move in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once a week so far this year,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of ongoing X analysis.
“This is the highest reading since 2022, when the share hit 29% for the full year. By comparison, the long-term average has been twice a month.”
S&P 500 volatility data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Inflation expectations are a key topic, meanwhile, with markets seeing interest rate cuts beginning in June despite the Fed itself staying hawkish.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows diverging opinions over what will result from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
By contrast, May’s FOMC gathering is almost unanimously expected to deliver a freeze on the current Fed funds rate.
Fed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
“Evidence of a strong labor market and concerns over how tariffs could impact the inflation outlook is keeping the Fed on hold when it comes to interest rates,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on April 27.
Referencing FedWatch, Mosaic noted that “market-implied odds are starting to shift in favor of more rate cuts through year-end.”
*
Crypto exec doubles down on $180K BTC price target*
Existing macro data is already causing a stir for crypto market participants eyeing the long-term implications of current Fed policy.
In his latest X analysis, hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero had a bold BTC price prediction in store for the coming eighteen months.
“Btc to 180k before summer '26,” he summarized.
Tapiero pointed to a recent Fed survey showing manufacturing expectations, deteriorating at a record pace, calling the results “hard for them to ignore.”
“Forward market inflation indicators collapsing into danger zone,” he continued in a separate post on the outlook for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In both cases, Tapiero concluded that Bitcoin and risk assets will benefit from increasing market liquidity — an already popular theory against the backdrop of record M2 money supply.
“Liquidity spigot coming as real rates too restrictive given fiscal tightening,” he added about current interest rates.
US CPI data. Source: Dan Tapiero/X*Bitcoin speculators turn a profit*
Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are back under the microscope at current prices thanks to the influence of their aggregate cost basis on market trajectory.
As Cointelegraph often reports, the cost basis, also known as realized price, reflects the average price at which speculative investors entered the market.
This level, which covers buyers over the past six months but which is also broken down into various subcategories, is particularly important in Bitcoin bull markets.
“Today, when we look at the current situation, we can see that the price has reached the STH-Realized Price,” CryptoMe, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on the topic.
CryptoQuant shows that the combined STH cost basis currently sits at around $92,000, making the level key to hold as support going forward.
“One of the key On-Chain conditions for a bull run is that the price remains above the STH-Realized Price. If the price is below the Realized Prices, we cannot truly talk about a bull run,” CryptoMe explains.
“If this bull run is to continue, it must meet these conditions.”
Bitcoin STH realized price data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantThe STH cost basis was lost as support in March, with the recent BTC price rebound having a near-instant impact on its most recent buyers.
STH-owned coins moving onchain earlier this month meanwhile led to predictions of fresh market volatility.
*Research warns of greed-induced “local top”*
After hitting its highest in nearly three months last week, greed within crypto is on the radar as a price influence this week.
*Related: **New Bitcoin price all-time highs could occur in May — Here is why*
The latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirms a spike to 72/100 on April 25, implying that crypto market sentiment came close to “extreme greed.”
Now back in “neutral” territory, the Index has nonetheless led research firm Santiment to warn of a potential local price top.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
“Data shows a surge in optimism from the crowd as $BTC rebounded above $95K for the first time since February,” it told X followers.
“As for the level of greed being measured across social media, this is the highest spike in bullish (vs. bearish) posts since the night Trump was elected on November 5, 2024.”
Crypto market sentiment data. Source: Santiment/X
An accompanying chart covered what Santiment describes as “excitement and FOMO” peaking as a result of the BTC price rebound.
“The crowd's level of greed vs. fear is very likely going to influence whether a local top forms (because the crowd gets too greedy), or if crypto can continue to decouple from the S&P 500 (because the crowd tries to prematurely take profit),” it added.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.