The latest on Fred and possibly Grace

Boy, it is sweltering out there, veryhot, very humid.

That's going tocontinue through tomorrow before webegin to see a transition on sundaywith increased rain late in the day isa cool front tries to come through andwe begin to get a little bit of thattropical moisture from fred.

Then we'llreally have some impact from fred bythe early part of next week.

And mostof those impacts as of right now looksto be rainfall.

Will there be flooding?Well, there's still a chance for that.Yes, if it trends more towards the westthen we're gonna come down on this alittle bit.

If it trends more towardthe east, then this would go up frommedium to high.

So I'm gonna keep it inthat moderate risk right now.

Notexpecting a lot of wind out of this, itmight be breezy at times, but as far ashigh or strong winds, that is not athreat right now and neither is thatlevel of severe weather will continueto track it though.

But let's get youcaught up tropical depression fred.Look at this, you can finally see alittle bit of a low pressure area, butthe real energy has detached.

It'sactually south.

This thing is nowinteracting more on land.

So it'samazing quite honestly, that it haslasted this long.

But I think beingover water For the last 24 hours hashelped that still the winds sustainedat 35 mph.

So it hasn't seen anystrengthening at all.

But still couldas it is expected to move back overwater where it will likely or couldbecome a tropical storm again latertoday.

Now the path is pretty much thesame as it has been.

Not as lot haschanged between, say basically cuBA andthe peninsula of florida.

What haschanged is its track is trending moreout toward the west and the systemitself is weakening faster once it's onland.

So looking like it's gonna makelandfall monday somewhere aroundTallahassee florida.

And then you seeas we get into Tuesday and Wednesday,look at this, rides up through Alabamaand then possibly right into Nashvilleas a pretty strong area of low pressurebut not necessarily still a tropicaldepression.

So what does that mean?That means we're on the east side of it.That means we will get quite a bit ofrain fall, but if it trends out moretowards the west, even more than this,then we're starting to lose some ofthose rain totals and rainfall amounts.Let me show you, as we take a look atsome of these weather models, you cansee more and more.

That is the trendpulling it away from us and out intowestern Tennessee.

What's next is thispost tropical cyclone seven.

This is avery strong system that we have beentracking for the past few days windsright now are the same as fred, Butit's moving faster to the west at 21mph, looking like it wants to follow avery similar path to fred and look atthis, we're talking about gettingimpacts from fred next Tuesday andWednesday By then this could betropical storm Grace.

In fact, itlikely will be named that this weekendand Grace could be where fred is rightnow.

Just crazy.

It's definitely activeout there.

All right, let's take a look.One weather model, this is the europeanmodel.

This actually brings it rightoverhead but it slowed down a littlebit.

So as we take a look at the timingsunday night, I think we're gonna havean intense chance for rain.

We've got acool front that's going to try to comethrough that's gonna interact with someof this moisture coming in from thegulf.

And our rain chances willincrease as we go into late sunday.Then here comes monday, I think we'regonna have some waves of rain comingoff of this system.

And if this modelis correct, then it would be basicallyTuesday morning we'd have a lot of rainfall, but the core would still be backin Atlanta.

It would be Tuesday laterin the day into Wednesday before itmakes its way across the upstate andthe mountains dumping quite a bit ofrain and then we'll be on the backsidepretty quickly and then we get back toscattered showers.

If this model iscorrect between sunday and monday, we'dhave half an inch to an inch of rain onaverage and then Tuesday, my goodness,we have up to six, maybe seven inchesof rain personally.

I think this modelis over doing it.

I do think it's goingto trend more westward, which might bemore in line with the GFS.

GFS has avery weak system barely alive by thetime it makes landfall.

But look atthis between sunday and monday, stillabout half an inch to an inch of rain.And then by Tuesday we're looking atmore like 12, maybe three inches ofrain.

Now that's good, we need rain andI think this is probably closer to whatwe can expect.

But again we continue totweak this as changes come in and thereason it's kind of still wobbly outthere is because that system fredreally doesn't have its legs yet.

It'sstill trying to survive a hit alongHispaniola from earlier this week andit's half in the water, half on landright now.

So as it strengthens, thiswill be fine to outside right now we'vegot some pop up showers and isolatedthunderstorms. They will not be aswidespread today as they have been inthe past but still expect somelightning, some downpours as we gothroughout this afternoon and tonightas well.

That's what you get when youhave high heat and high humidity againthat continues for tomorrow as well andthen getting into the end of theweekend and early next week.

Our rainchances go up monday, Tuesday, possiblyWednesday.

But we'll see in themeantime notice temperatures.

It'll bea little cooler because of thatrainfall.

But it's still, we're stillgonna have a lot of tropical moisturein the air.Mhm.

Mhm.