Dr. Adam Stulberg provides his analysis of the situation in Ukraine which has become a war of attrition characterized by constant surprise for all participants.
The Russian military is learning from its mistakes.
He discusses and quantifies the use of red lines by Russia, how they can be interpreted as hollow threats, but how they can also be understood as a different and opaque approach by Moscow to competitive bargaining which blurs lines between peace and war and increases uncertainty, which is doubly dangerous.
The Russians see sanctions as part of a new definition of war (e.g.
Information, energy diplomacy, hybrid, next generation) and thus far have solidly absorbed the shocks.
Energy is becoming less and less a potent instrument of political and strategic influence.
Domestic politics is going to be playing a bigger role in the war going forward given the elections taking place in many countries.