Since 2022, after Russia defeated the first NATO trained Ukrainian army in the battles of Mariupol, Severeodonetsk and Lysychansk, Russia switched to an attrition war with a focus on demilitarisation and the capture of the Donbas.
NATOs infusion of massive aid to save Ukraine from an early defeat and imbued them with a false confidence that led to the twin offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv of 2022, which, though touted as successes, were really Ukraine's undoing.
What followed were a string of military defeats for Ukraine in Bakhmut, Avdiivka and the disastrous summer 2023 counteroffensive that has destroyed whatever strike capacity Ukraine had.
Now Russia is attacking across the large front line with particular focus in Zaporyzhia, Chasiv Yar, the Avdiivka front, Kupyansk and recently toward Kharkiv.
There are also rumblings about a build up of Russian and Chechen troops near Sumy, which, if it amounts to another front would stretch Ukraine to a breaking point.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's manpower shortage shows no signs of resolution anytime soon and their committal of their last available reserves to Kharkiv now gives Russia room to resume its advances in Chasiv Yar- which it has done.
Russian troops have crossed the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas River and have gained a foothold in the Kanal Microdistrict.
The promised military aid from the US seems to not yet have arrived and we are now in June.
Summer is here, and we all await the Russian offensive to break the Ukrainian resistance for good.
NATO is now faced with two choices, prepare for a humiliating defeat or go all-in.
Either way, the Ukrainian army won't be saved and will not make it to 2025.